Ulm 1846 2-2 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.65
6+ Goals
7%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.45
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
9%
8.27
X/X
16%
4.69
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
11%
6.38
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 27%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
2.28/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.60
+38% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
313 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulm 1846
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.14 xG 0.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
189 Passes 325
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 1-0 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 AL3
12.09.2020 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
2-2
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 and Erzgebirge Aue couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ulm 1846 at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 46% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 54%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ulm 1846 had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ulm 1846 and 0.50 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Ulm 1846 2-2 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 45%, draw 30%, Erzgebirge Aue 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ulm 1846) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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