Amiens SC 2-3 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.67
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 35% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.21
X/2
13%
7.58
X/X
17%
3.94
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
14%
6.27
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
47%
-10.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+10.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.7pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amiens SC EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.41/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.30
+2% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
21.1 Crosses 15.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amiens SC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Pau
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.13 xG 1.45
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 Passes 317
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 1-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
04.03.2023 Amiens SC Amiens SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
05.11.2022 Pau Pau 2-1 HT 1-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
05.03.2022 Pau Pau 2-1 HT 0-1 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
21.09.2021 Amiens SC Amiens SC 2-2 HT 1-1 Pau Pau FR2
02.02.2021 Pau Pau 2-0 HT 1-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amiens SC
2-3
AWAY Pau
1.64 xG 1.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
374 Passes 375
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Amiens SC vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau nicked a narrow win over Amiens SC 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Pau found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amiens SC had 50% of the ball to Pau's 50%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.64 to 1.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pau led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Amiens SC and 1.50 for Pau.

What was the final score of Amiens SC vs Pau?

Amiens SC 2-3 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amiens SC vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amiens SC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Amiens SC 37%, draw 29%, Pau 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Amiens SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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