Lucchese 4-1 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.6
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.14
6+ Goals
8%
20.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+8.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
48%
Away Win
59%
-10.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.7pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 62%
+18% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
0.97/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.52
+0% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +49%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
230 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ternana
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.11.2024 Ternana Ternana 5-0 HT 2-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
4-1
AWAY Ternana
34% Ball Possession 66%
15 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese swept aside Ternana 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ternana at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lucchese had 34% of the ball to Ternana's 66%, shots finished 15-13.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Ternana?

Lucchese 4-1 Ternana in the Italy - Serie C on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 27%, draw 25%, Ternana 48%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ternana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
30 Mar 2025
13:30 Atalanta II vs Padova Calcio Analysis →
16:00 Pro Vercelli vs Vicenza Analysis →
16:00 Ascoli vs Vis Pesaro Analysis →
16:00 Rimini vs Sestri Levante Analysis →
16:00 Trapani 1905 vs Catania Analysis →
16:00 Audace Cerignola vs SS Monopoli Analysis →