Lumezzane 2-2 Caldiero Terme — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
19.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldiero Terme EU Bookmakers 30%
-12% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.14/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/2.41
-13% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -49%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
308 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lumezzane
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Caldiero Terme
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
15.11.2024 Caldiero Terme 2-2 HT 0-1 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lumezzane
2-2
AWAY Caldiero Terme
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lumezzane vs Caldiero Terme
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lumezzane and Caldiero Terme couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lumezzane at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lumezzane had 50% of the ball to Caldiero Terme's 50%, shots finished 18-10.

What was the final score of Lumezzane vs Caldiero Terme?

Lumezzane 2-2 Caldiero Terme in the Italy - Serie C on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lumezzane vs Caldiero Terme?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lumezzane win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lumezzane 43%, draw 28%, Caldiero Terme 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lumezzane) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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