Auxerre vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Auxerre v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals
Auxerre vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Montpellier
FR1
1-2
HT 1-0
Auxerre
FR1
1-2
HT 1-1
Montpellier
FR1
3-1
HT 1-1
Auxerre
FR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Montpellier
FR1
Auxerre 1-0 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics
Auxerre nicked a narrow win over Montpellier 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Auxerre had 53% of the ball to Montpellier's 47%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.10 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auxerre's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Auxerre and 1.83 for Montpellier.
What was the final score of Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Auxerre 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 50%, draw 25%, Montpellier 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.