Le Havre 3-2 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.34
6+ Goals
10%
22.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.6
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1
12%
6.12
X/2
17%
5.15
X/X
11%
4.1
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.53
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.43/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.90
+4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +41%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.0 Crosses 20.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Nantes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.83 xG 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
253 Passes 482
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Nantes Nantes 0-2 HT 0-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
14.04.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
26.11.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
23.02.2013 Nantes Nantes 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
21.09.2012 Le Havre Le Havre 1-1 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR2
05.03.2012 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
3-2
AWAY Nantes
4.33 xG 0.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
330 Passes 306
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
33 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre squeezed past Nantes 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Le Havre found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Le Havre had 52% of the ball to Nantes's 48%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 4.33 to 0.76 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Le Havre's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nantes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Le Havre and 0.83 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Nantes?

Le Havre 3-2 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nantes win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 34%, draw 27%, Nantes 39%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nantes) ✗ Under 2.5
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