Toulouse vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toulouse v Brest — Team-Based Signals
Toulouse vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Toulouse
FR1
3-1
HT 1-1
Toulouse
FR1
1-1
HT 0-1
Brest
FR1
2-5
HT 2-1
Brest
FR1
Toulouse 2-4 Brest — Actual Match Statistics
Brest got the better of Toulouse 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Brest made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Toulouse had 53% of the ball to Brest's 47%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.06 to 1.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toulouse.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toulouse and 2.50 for Brest.
What was the final score of Toulouse vs Brest?
Toulouse 2-4 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Brest?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 39%, draw 30%, Brest 31%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toulouse), Under 2.5 went the other way.