NK Varazdin 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.34
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
47%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.89
6+ Goals
10%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 30% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
16%
+11.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
47%
Away Win
60%
-13.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 64%
+13% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
0.87/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.75
+13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
244 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 79%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
11.6 Crosses 18.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.75 xG 1.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
317 Passes 376
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.12.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
06.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
27.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
26.04.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.24 xG 1.94
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 2
233 Passes 419
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Zagreb at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 39% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 61%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.24 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.50 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 27%, draw 26%, Dinamo Zagreb 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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