Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.16
2-3 Goals
35%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 34% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-8.9pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.0pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +16%
1.66/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.15
-2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.5 Crosses 12.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
5W-1D-0L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.45 xG 0.63
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
385 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
27.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
26.04.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
19.02.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
3-2
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.41 xG 1.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
322 Passes 360
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb squeezed past NK Varazdin 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 48% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 52%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.41 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.33 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Dinamo Zagreb 3-2 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 56%, draw 24%, NK Varazdin 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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