Lobos UPNFM 1-0 Juticalpa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-10.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+10.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Juticalpa EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.48/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.83
-5% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Juticalpa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
30.01.2025 Juticalpa Juticalpa 1-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
07.11.2024 Juticalpa Juticalpa 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
01.09.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 4-1 HT 2-1 Juticalpa Juticalpa HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM nicked a narrow win over Juticalpa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Lobos UPNFM made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Juticalpa led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.67 for Juticalpa.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa?

Lobos UPNFM 1-0 Juticalpa in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 39%, draw 28%, Juticalpa 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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