Marathon 1-1 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
17%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
45%
-10.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.0pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.36/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.17
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Motagua
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
31.01.2025 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
07.11.2024 Marathon Marathon 2-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
02.09.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
08.04.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
12.02.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
10.12.2023 Marathon Marathon 2-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon and Motagua couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Marathon and 1.33 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Motagua?

Marathon 1-1 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Marathon 35%, draw 31%, Motagua 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Marathon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marathon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HON More Honduras - National League Apertura
30 Mar 2025
00:00 Olancho vs CD Real Sociedad Analysis →
02:15 Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa Analysis →