Motagua 2-2 Marathon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-10.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Marathon EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +17%
1.80/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.52
-1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
491 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Marathon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
07.11.2024 Marathon Marathon 2-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
02.09.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
08.04.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
12.02.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
10.12.2023 Marathon Marathon 2-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
07.12.2023 Motagua Motagua 2-1 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Marathon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua and Marathon couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Motagua and 1.17 for Marathon.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Marathon?

Motagua 2-2 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Marathon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Motagua 44%, draw 29%, Marathon 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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