Progreso 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
42%
Away Win
42%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 46%
+12% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.45/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.97
+30% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
07.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-2 HT 2-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
10.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 4-3 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
14.08.2022 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
09.10.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo squeezed past Progreso 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Racing Club Montevideo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Progreso had 43% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 57%, shots finished 6-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Progreso and 1.80 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Progreso 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Progreso 28%, draw 30%, Racing Club Montevideo 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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30 Mar 2025
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