Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Apr 2025

📅30/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.33
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
70%
-18.0pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.4pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.5pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.66/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.23
+29% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
414 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
17.9 Crosses 12.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.36 xG 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
320 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
24.11.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
06.10.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
25.03.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
25.08.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
18.06.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
3-0
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
2.28 xG 0.04
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 1
8 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 0
578 Passes 260
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 5
16 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional swept aside Deportivo Pasto 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 67% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 33%, shots finished 21-1, expected goals 2.28 to 0.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.67 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 53%, draw 26%, Deportivo Pasto 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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