Chicago Fire vs St. Louis Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chicago Fire v St. Louis — Team-Based Signals
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-0
St. Louis
ABDK
2-1
HT 2-0
Chicago Fire
ABDK
0-1
HT 0-1
Chicago Fire
ABDK
Chicago Fire 1-2 St. Louis — Actual Match Statistics
St. Louis edged past Chicago Fire 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Chicago Fire at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Chicago Fire had 60% of the ball to St. Louis's 40%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.68 to 0.86 — on chances, Chicago Fire could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.00 for St. Louis.
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs St. Louis?
Chicago Fire 1-2 St. Louis in the USA - Open Cup on 30/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs St. Louis?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 45%, draw 23%, St. Louis 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chicago Fire) went the other way.