Houston Dynamo 2-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 30 Apr 2026

📅30/04/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.88
No
42%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
12.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-2.3pp
19%
Draw
23%
-4.0pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
49%
+8.9pp
42%
BTTS No
51%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.39/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.17
-5% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
20.7 Crosses 25.0
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
2-1
AWAY Louisville City
2.49 xG 1.46
71% Ball Possession 29%
22 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
791 Passes 281
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 13
36 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo nicked a narrow win over Louisville City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Houston Dynamo as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 71% of the ball to Louisville City's 29%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 2.49 to 1.46.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?

Houston Dynamo 2-1 Louisville City in the USA - Open Cup on 30/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 57%, draw 19%, Louisville City 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Houston Dynamo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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