Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Nottingham Forest found just enough to beat Aston Villa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
The model refused to pick a side here (33% / 31% / 36%); Nottingham Forest picked one for it. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
By the numbers, possession split 50% to 50% in Nottingham Forest's favour, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.56 to 0.79.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Nottingham Forest against 1.83 for Aston Villa.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Result & Final Score
Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Aston Villa in the UEFA Europa League on 30/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 33%, draw 31%, Aston Villa 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aston Villa), BTTS Yes went the other way.