Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Aston Villa
İNP
2-0
HT 0-0
Nottingham Forest
İNP
1-1
HT 1-1
Aston Villa
İNP
1-3
HT 1-2
Aston Villa
İNCL
5-5
HT 3-3
Nottingham Forest
İNCL
Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Nottingham Forest nicked a narrow win over Aston Villa 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Nottingham Forest as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Nottingham Forest had 50% of the ball to Aston Villa's 50%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.78 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nottingham Forest's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.50 for Aston Villa.
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 42%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.