Nacional de Football 3-2 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 30 Jun 2025

📅30/06/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.2pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.7pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
2.02/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.35
+24% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +37%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Danubio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
28.11.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
13.07.2024 Danubio Danubio 0-6 HT 0-3 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
26.05.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
16.11.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-3 HT 1-1 Danubio Danubio URU
09.04.2023 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
3-2
AWAY Danubio
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football nicked a narrow win over Danubio 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 46% of the ball to Danubio's 54%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.50 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Danubio?

Nacional de Football 3-2 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 30/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 58%, draw 22%, Danubio 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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