Louisville City 1-0 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USLKP, 30 Jun 2025

📅30/06/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
59%
-3.6pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.5pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY North Carolina
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.91 xG 0.85
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
287 Passes 337
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.06.2025 North Carolina North Carolina 2-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
03.11.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-2 HT 2-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
01.09.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 4-6 HT 3-3 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
09.06.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
07.03.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
24.08.2019 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City edged past North Carolina 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Louisville City and 1.50 for North Carolina.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs North Carolina?

Louisville City 1-0 North Carolina in the USLKP on 30/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 56%, draw 21%, North Carolina 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Over 2.5
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