North Carolina 2-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Jun 2025

📅21/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
35%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+4.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.0pp
35%
Away Win
42%
-7.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.12/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.95
+88% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +41%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
14.8 Crosses 22.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Louisville City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 1.86
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
341 Passes 306
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-2 HT 2-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
01.09.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 4-6 HT 3-3 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
09.06.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
07.03.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
24.08.2019 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
10.03.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 4-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
2-1
AWAY Louisville City
0.87 xG 1.78
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
238 Passes 322
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina squeezed past Louisville City 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; North Carolina found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, North Carolina had 43% of the ball to Louisville City's 57%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 0.87 to 1.78 — on chances, Louisville City could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for North Carolina and 2.33 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Louisville City?

North Carolina 2-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 21/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 35%, draw 30%, Louisville City 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
21 Jun 2025
02:00 Lexington vs Colorado Springs Analysis →
02:30 Hartford Athletic vs Loudoun United Analysis →
23:00 Detroit City vs Miami FC Analysis →