Fenerbahçe 2-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 30 Jul 2024

📅30/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.3
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
28%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.59
Over Pick
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
25%
5.58
2-3
37%
2.02
4-5
25%
2.64
6+
13%
6.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
22.7
X/1
16%
3.52
X/2
11%
18.95
X/X
9%
8.66
2/1
8%
20.6
2/2
10%
13.75
2/X
6%
22.3
Value flag · X/2 at 18.95 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
51%
Home Win
72%
-21.9pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.1pp
28%
Away Win
11%
+16.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano The Market 14%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-23% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
446 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lugano
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.40 xG 1.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
351 Passes 456
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 5
23.07.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-4 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
2-1
AWAY Lugano
1.92 xG 0.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
338 Passes 413
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe edged past Lugano 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 46% of the ball to Lugano's 54%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.92 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Lugano?

Fenerbahçe 2-1 Lugano in the Champions League on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 51%, draw 22%, Lugano 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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