Modena 4-1 Pistoiese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jul 2025

📅30/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
59%
1.16
Draw
22%
7.13
Away
19%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
Over
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
47%
4-5
24%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Modena win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
59%
Home Win
82%
-23.0pp
22%
Draw
11%
+11.2pp
19%
Away Win
7%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena The Market 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Pistoiese The Market 9%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
3.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
+19% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +19%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
369 · 89% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Pistoiese
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2022 Pistoiese Pistoiese 1-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTC
28.11.2021 Modena Modena 6-1 HT 4-0 Pistoiese Pistoiese İTC
25.02.2002 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 0-0 Pistoiese Pistoiese İTB
30.09.2001 Pistoiese Pistoiese 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
4-1
AWAY Pistoiese
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Modena vs Pistoiese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena swept aside Pistoiese 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Modena as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Modena had 61% of the ball to Pistoiese's 39%, shots finished 15-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Modena had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Modena and 0.50 for Pistoiese.

What was the final score of Modena vs Pistoiese?

Modena 4-1 Pistoiese in the Friendlies on 30/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Pistoiese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Modena 59%, draw 22%, Pistoiese 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Modena), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Modena) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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