Makhachkala 1-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 30 Jul 2025

📅30/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.59
Over 2.5
49%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.55
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Makhachkala
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.40 xG 0.78
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
232 Passes 246
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.11.2024 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 HT 0-0 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
04.08.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 0-1 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
POST-MATCH Makhachkala vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Makhachkala nicked a narrow win over Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Makhachkala as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pari Nizhny Novgorod led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Makhachkala and 0.50 for Pari Nizhny Novgorod.

What was the final score of Makhachkala vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

Makhachkala 1-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod in the Russia - Cup on 30/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Makhachkala vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Makhachkala win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Makhachkala 43%, draw 25%, Pari Nizhny Novgorod 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Makhachkala), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Makhachkala) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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