FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 30 Jul 2025

📅30/07/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 51%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.93/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.24/1.44
+93% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -85% / -41%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.63 xG 1.90
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
286 Passes 464
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.05.2025 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
27.11.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
10.11.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
06.11.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
19.05.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-5 HT 1-3 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
28.10.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-1 HT 2-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-2
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
65% Ball Possession 35%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg edged past FC Akhmat Grozny 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Zenit St. Petersburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 65% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 35%, shots finished 7-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 2.83 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Cup on 30/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 31%, draw 29%, Zenit St. Petersburg 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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