Chelmsford City 2-1 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 34% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
42%
+6.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.6pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.44/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.35
+3% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Chesham United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 1-1 HT 1-0 Chesham United Chesham United İCON
21.01.2025 Chesham United Chesham United 2-2 HT 1-1 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelmsford City squeezed past Chesham United 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chelmsford City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chelmsford City and 1.50 for Chesham United.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Chesham United?

Chelmsford City 2-1 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 49%, draw 23%, Chesham United 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelmsford City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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