Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Alaves v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Deportivo Alaves
İS1
4-1
HT 1-0
Deportivo Alaves
İS1
1-0
HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Alaves and Atletico Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 40% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 60%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 0.91 to 1.06.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.33 for Atletico Madrid.
What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 28%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.