Real Madrid 2-1 Mallorca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
79%
1.18
Draw
13%
5.71
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.94
4-5 Goals
23%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
6.29
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.09 — our 24% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.31
1/2
2%
34.5
1/X
3%
26.5
X/1
29%
3.7
X/2
3%
27.0
X/X
6%
9.42
2/1
11%
23.65
2/2
2%
24.5
2/X
5%
32.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Real Madrid win — 79%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
80%
-0.8pp
13%
Draw
14%
-0.7pp
8%
Away Win
6%
+1.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Mallorca EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
2.37/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.97
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +17%
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
524 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 74%
40.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
18.9 Crosses 15.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mallorca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.89 xG 0.59
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
557 Passes 239
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.05.2025 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 0-1 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
09.01.2025 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İSSK
18.08.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 1-1 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
13.04.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
03.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
05.02.2023 Mallorca Mallorca 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2-1
AWAY Mallorca
1.82 xG 0.72
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
481 Passes 302
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
46 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Mallorca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid edged past Mallorca 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 58% of the ball to Mallorca's 42%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.82 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Real Madrid and 0.50 for Mallorca.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Mallorca?

Real Madrid 2-1 Mallorca in the Spain - Primera Liga on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Mallorca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 79%, draw 13%, Mallorca 8%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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