Saarbrücken 4-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
8.49
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.45 — our 27% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.47
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
20%
4.72
X/2
12%
7.9
X/X
16%
5.56
2/1
9%
20.95
2/2
11%
5.45
2/X
4%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.87/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.02
+9% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.1 Crosses 18.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
317 Passes 360
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2025 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
02.11.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 1-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
09.03.2024 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-0 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
07.10.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
26.02.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
20.08.2022 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
4-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
332 Passes 297
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saarbrücken ran out comfortable winners over Erzgebirge Aue 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Saarbrücken as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 52% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 48%, shots finished 12-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Saarbrücken and 0.83 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Saarbrücken 4-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 47%, draw 25%, Erzgebirge Aue 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saarbrücken), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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