Bastia vs Guingamp Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bastia v Guingamp — Team-Based Signals
Bastia vs Guingamp Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Guingamp
FR2
1-1
HT 1-0
Guingamp
FR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Bastia
FR2
Bastia 1-3 Guingamp — Actual Match Statistics
Guingamp beat Bastia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
This one beat our numbers. Bastia carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Bastia had 52% of the ball to Guingamp's 48%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.02 to 1.91.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bastia and 0.83 for Guingamp.
What was the final score of Bastia vs Guingamp?
Bastia 1-3 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bastia 55%, draw 22%, Guingamp 23%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.