Guingamp 2-2 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.78
Over 2.5
38%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 33% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.8pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 25%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +13%
1.44/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.27
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
22.6 Crosses 13.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Bastia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.04 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 273
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.12.2024 Bastia Bastia 3-1 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
20.04.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 0-1 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
28.10.2023 Bastia Bastia 0-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
18.02.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
22.10.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
16.04.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-2 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
2-2
AWAY Bastia
1.93 xG 1.12
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 6
360 Passes 195
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp and Bastia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Guingamp at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guingamp had 64% of the ball to Bastia's 36%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.93 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Guingamp and 1.17 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Bastia?

Guingamp 2-2 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 46%, draw 29%, Bastia 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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