Ajaccio 2-1 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 2 May 2025

Ajaccio
2-1 HT 1-0
Lorient
📅02/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Ajaccio vs Lorient Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
4.04
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
45%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.8
Over 2.5
56%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
17%
7.8
1/2
8%
24.65
1/X
8%
16.55
X/1
11%
9.42
X/2
8%
4.17
X/X
7%
4.97
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
29%
2.25
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 1/1 at 7.8 — our 17% vs market 9.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
21%
+13.1pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.0pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-9.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
52%
-7.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
48%
+7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajaccio v Lorient — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajaccio EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient EU Bookmakers 58%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -6%
1.17/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.98
-48% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
17.9 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Ajaccio vs Lorient Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajaccio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lorient
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.60 xG 1.61
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
296 Passes 386
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.09.2024 Lorient Lorient 3-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
19.02.2023 Lorient Lorient 3-0 HT 2-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR1
04.09.2022 Ajaccio Ajaccio 0-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
30.07.2022 Lorient Lorient 1-1 HT 1-1 Ajaccio Ajaccio HAZ
07.03.2020 Ajaccio Ajaccio 1-0 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR2
04.10.2019 Lorient Lorient 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2

Ajaccio 2-1 Lorient — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajaccio
2-1
AWAY Lorient
0.96 xG 1.76
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 6
215 Passes 514
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 23
6 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ajaccio vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajaccio squeezed past Lorient 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lorient at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Ajaccio had 33% of the ball to Lorient's 67%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 0.96 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lorient.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lorient led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ajaccio and 1.33 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Ajaccio vs Lorient?

Ajaccio 2-1 Lorient in the France - Ligue 2 on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajaccio vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ajaccio 34%, draw 21%, Lorient 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lorient) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lorient) ✓ Over 2.5
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