Correcaminos UAT 1-4 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
1.95
Over 2.5
60%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.66
No
35%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
48%
-7.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
52%
+7.4pp
64%
BTTS Yes
56%
+8.3pp
36%
BTTS No
44%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Correcaminos UAT EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -4%
1.45/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.18
+2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Correcaminos UAT
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
4 Corners 9
07.03.2025 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 2-1 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
21.09.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 6-0 HT 3-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
07.03.2024 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 2-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
14.09.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 1-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
15.03.2023 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 2-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
19.08.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
POST-MATCH Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos cruised past Correcaminos UAT 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Tepatitlán de Morelos found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Correcaminos UAT and 2.17 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Correcaminos UAT 1-4 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Correcaminos UAT win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Correcaminos UAT 38%, draw 26%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Correcaminos UAT) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Correcaminos UAT) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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