Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.94
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
22%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
31%
-5.3pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.2pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Volga Ulyanovsk EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 43%
-16% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -7%
0.77/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.93
-29% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
306 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Volga Ulyanovsk
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.04.2023 Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
25.09.2022 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-0 HT 2-0 Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Volga Ulyanovsk
2-1
AWAY Arsenal Tula
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Volga Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Volga Ulyanovsk squeezed past Arsenal Tula 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Tula at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Volga Ulyanovsk had 56% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 44%, shots finished 20-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arsenal Tula led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.00 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of Volga Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula?

Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Volga Ulyanovsk 25%, draw 32%, Arsenal Tula 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal Tula), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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