Brusque 0-1 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.83
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.16
No
66%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
42%
2.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
13%
5.98
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.12 — our 42% vs market 40.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
29%
Draw
32%
-2.7pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.6pp
34%
BTTS Yes
42%
-7.7pp
66%
BTTS No
58%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brusque EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.29/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.29
-21% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 72%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
23.9 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brusque
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.68 xG 0.97
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
288 Passes 324
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.07.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-1 Brusque Brusque BR2
04.03.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BRCAT1
20.08.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
06.05.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
06.02.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-3 HT 1-0 Brusque Brusque BRCAT1
01.04.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brusque
0-1
AWAY Chapecoense
0.58 xG 1.10
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
364 Passes 157
79% Pass Accuracy 65%
20 Box Touches 8
31 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Brusque vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense nicked a narrow win over Brusque 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (66%) came in.

On the day, Brusque had 66% of the ball to Chapecoense's 34%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 0.58 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Brusque and 0.50 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Brusque vs Chapecoense?

Brusque 0-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brusque vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brusque win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Brusque 37%, draw 29%, Chapecoense 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Brusque) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brusque) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
30 Oct 2024
01:00 Goias vs Operario PR Analysis →
03:30 Guarani FC vs Novorizontino Analysis →
03:30 Amazonas vs Botafogo SP Analysis →