Worthing 3-0 Weston-super-Mare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
9%
9.46
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 29% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.3pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Worthing EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 36%
-8% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
2.16/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.86
+56% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Worthing
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
10.08.2024 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 3-4 HT 3-0 Worthing Worthing İCON
05.12.2023 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 4-0 HT 0-0 Worthing Worthing İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Worthing
3-0
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Worthing vs Weston-super-Mare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Worthing cruised past Weston-super-Mare 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Worthing as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Worthing had 66% of the ball to Weston-super-Mare's 34%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Worthing and 3.50 for Weston-super-Mare.

What was the final score of Worthing vs Weston-super-Mare?

Worthing 3-0 Weston-super-Mare in the England - Conference on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Worthing vs Weston-super-Mare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Worthing win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Worthing 42%, draw 25%, Weston-super-Mare 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Worthing), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Worthing) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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