Freiburg 4-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Nov 2025

Freiburg
4 - 0 HT 2 - 0
Mainz 05
📅30/11/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.03
Over
54%
1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.69
No
45%
2.05
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
46%
4-5
24%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
2%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
3%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Freiburg The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 The Market 25%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong
1.77 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.18
0.94 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.61
Average Attack Strength Strong
Average Defense Strength Average
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
435 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 71%
26 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.62 xG 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
320 Passes 345
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
03.11.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
21.04.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
03.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.03.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
01.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
4 - 0
AWAY Mainz 05
4.60 xG 0.08
75% Ball Possession 25%
23 Total Shots 1
10 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
642 Passes 171
90% Pass Accuracy 70%
46 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Freiburg vs Mainz 05
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Freiburg made light work of Mainz 05 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: both teams to score (55%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Freiburg had 75% of the ball to Mainz 05's 25%, shots finished 23-1, expected goals 4.60 to 0.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Freiburg and 0.83 for Mainz 05.

Freiburg vs Mainz 05 Result & Final Score

Freiburg 4 - 0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Freiburg vs Mainz 05 Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 54%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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