Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mainz 05 v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Freiburg
AL1
1-1
HT 0-0
Freiburg
AL1
2-1
HT 2-0
Mainz 05
AL1
1-1
HT 0-1
Mainz 05
AL1
Mainz 05 2-2 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics
Mainz 05 and Freiburg shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Mainz 05 had 44% of the ball to Freiburg's 56%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 1.30 to 3.14.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Freiburg.
What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Freiburg?
Mainz 05 2-2 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Freiburg?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 48%, draw 25%, Freiburg 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.