Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
6.35
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
2.77
6+ Goals
11%
7.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.5 — our 26% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
13.6
1/2
5%
21.0
1/X
7%
21.7
X/1
7%
16.35
X/2
23%
3.85
X/X
7%
7.37
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.57
2/X
7%
18.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
12%
+11.5pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.4pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-13.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 75%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -7%
0.82/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/1.04
-13% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -18%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 482 · 83%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.3
18.4 Crosses 20.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.64 xG 2.30
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
216 Passes 687
72% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 2-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.04.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-5 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
24.01.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
26.02.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 3-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
03.09.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
19.03.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 3-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
1-1
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.69 xG 1.66
20% Ball Possession 80%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 14
97 Passes 661
54% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin and Bayern Münih shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Bayern Münih carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Berlin had 20% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 80%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.69 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Union Berlin and 2.83 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Bayern Münih?

Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 24%, draw 20%, Bayern Münih 56%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bayern Münih), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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