RB Leipzig 2-0 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.81
1/2
5%
24.7
1/X
7%
11.9
X/1
16%
6.26
X/2
12%
5.87
X/X
14%
5.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
2/2
18%
3.44
2/X
5%
11.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.5pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 42%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.64/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.72
+10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
13.6 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.16 xG 1.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
370 Passes 424
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.04.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-1 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
09.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
05.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
03.03.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
10.09.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-0
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.87 xG 3.06
34% Ball Possession 66%
15 Total Shots 25
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 12
206 Passes 494
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 60
14 Crosses 38
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig got the better of Borussia Dortmund 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; RB Leipzig found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 34% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 66%, shots finished 15-25, expected goals 1.87 to 3.06 — on chances, Borussia Dortmund could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.17 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

RB Leipzig 2-0 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 39%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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