Homburg 4-1 Freiburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.1pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.8pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
2.14/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/2.52
+8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -33%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Freiburg II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Freiburg II Freiburg II 5-3 HT 2-3 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
09.03.2025 Freiburg II Freiburg II 3-2 HT 1-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
30.08.2024 Homburg Homburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
29.05.2021 Freiburg II Freiburg II 0-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
17.02.2021 Homburg Homburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
22.02.2020 Homburg Homburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Freiburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg cruised past Freiburg II 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Homburg as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Homburg and 2.17 for Freiburg II.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Freiburg II?

Homburg 4-1 Freiburg II in the Germany - Regional League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Freiburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Homburg 54%, draw 24%, Freiburg II 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Homburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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