Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
43%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 29.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.21
1/2
10%
30.0
1/X
9%
13.65
X/1
13%
5.9
X/2
18%
5.41
X/X
11%
4.3
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
15%
3.69
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
35%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -19%
1.06/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.16
-32% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
23.3 Crosses 17.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.32 xG 0.67
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
230 Passes 475
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0-1
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
1.18 xG 0.94
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
235 Passes 416
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Urawa Red Diamonds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds edged past Fagiano Okayama 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Urawa Red Diamonds as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 39% of the ball to Urawa Red Diamonds's 61%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.18 to 0.94.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Before kick-off our model rated an Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 30%, draw 27%, Urawa Red Diamonds 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✓ Under 2.5
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