Kawasaki Frontale 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.43
1/2
6%
23.1
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
11%
6.87
X/2
14%
5.39
X/X
9%
5.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
2/2
23%
3.05
2/X
5%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.3pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 46%
+12% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.53/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.00
+85% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
342 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
14.3 Crosses 22.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
373 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.05.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
29.06.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
28.04.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-2 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
19.08.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 HT 1-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
11.06.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
10.09.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 4-0 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
1-2
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.70 xG 2.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
299 Passes 336
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 58
6 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kawasaki Frontale vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kawasaki Frontale had 46% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 54%, shots finished 9-23, expected goals 0.70 to 2.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sanfrecce Hiroshima's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.17 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Kawasaki Frontale 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kawasaki Frontale vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kawasaki Frontale 35%, draw 22%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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