Polessya 2-0 Zorya Luhansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.64
Over
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
40%
4-5
21%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polessya EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Zorya Luhansk EU Bookmakers 29%
-26% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +29%
0.82/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.94
-44% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polessya
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Zorya Luhansk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
17.05.2025 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 0-1 HT 0-1 Polessya Polessya UKR
25.11.2024 Polessya Polessya 1-1 HT 0-0 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk UKR
05.05.2024 Polessya Polessya 1-1 HT 1-0 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk UKR
28.10.2023 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 0-1 HT 0-1 Polessya Polessya UKR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polessya
2-0
AWAY Zorya Luhansk
46% Ball Possession 54%
3 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polessya got the better of Zorya Luhansk 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Polessya as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Polessya had 46% of the ball to Zorya Luhansk's 54%, shots finished 3-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Polessya had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Polessya and 0.50 for Zorya Luhansk.

What was the final score of Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?

Polessya 2-0 Zorya Luhansk in the Ukraine - Premier League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polessya win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Polessya 44%, draw 25%, Zorya Luhansk 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polessya), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polessya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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