Bastia 1-1 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 31 Jan 2025

Bastia
1-1 HT 1-0
Metz
📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Bastia vs Metz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.59
Over 2.5
39%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
15%
4.66
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.39 — our 36% vs market 34.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.88
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
13%
6.19
X/2
16%
4.88
X/X
19%
3.87
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.39
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+1.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-2.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bastia v Metz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 43%
+15% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.10/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.79
-1% / +106% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +51%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.8 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Bastia vs Metz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Metz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.76 xG 1.11
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 Passes 361
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.08.2024 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
02.06.2023 Metz Metz 3-2 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
17.09.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2
17.03.2017 Metz Metz 1-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR1
10.12.2016 Bastia Bastia 2-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR1
07.02.2015 Bastia Bastia 2-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1

Bastia 1-1 Metz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
1-1
AWAY Metz
1.97 xG 1.02
34% Ball Possession 66%
22 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
156 Passes 372
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia and Metz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Bastia had 34% of the ball to Metz's 66%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.97 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bastia and 0.83 for Metz.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Metz?

Bastia 1-1 Metz in the France - Ligue 2 on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bastia 32%, draw 30%, Metz 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Metz), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Metz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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