Pau 1-1 Stade Lavallois — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.05
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
14%
4.88
X/2
9%
6.7
X/X
9%
4.39
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
10%
4.99
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.7pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Lavallois EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +12%
1.70/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.34
+34% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.8 Crosses 19.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stade Lavallois
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.16 xG 0.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
382 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 3-1 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
20.04.2024 Pau Pau 3-0 HT 2-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
16.12.2023 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
18.02.2023 Pau Pau 0-1 HT 0-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
10.09.2022 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 0-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
18.10.2019 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 0-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-1
AWAY Stade Lavallois
2.29 xG 0.86
52% Ball Possession 48%
25 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
382 Passes 355
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
45 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pau vs Stade Lavallois
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau and Stade Lavallois couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Pau at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Pau had 52% of the ball to Stade Lavallois's 48%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 2.29 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pau had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pau and 0.83 for Stade Lavallois.

What was the final score of Pau vs Stade Lavallois?

Pau 1-1 Stade Lavallois in the France - Ligue 2 on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Stade Lavallois?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pau 47%, draw 28%, Stade Lavallois 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pau), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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