Liverpool vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Liverpool v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals
Liverpool vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics
Liverpool swept aside Newcastle United 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 49%, coin-flips both. At 1.51 (~66%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
Under the surface, possession split 54% to 46% in Liverpool's favour, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.28 to 0.37.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.50 a game for Liverpool against 1.67 for Newcastle United.
Liverpool vs Newcastle United Result & Final Score
Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Liverpool vs Newcastle United Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 58%, draw 21%, Newcastle United 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.