Newcastle United 3-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Dec 2024

Newcastle United
3-3 HT 1-0
Liverpool
📅04/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
48%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.21
Over 2.5
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.49
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
29%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.59
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
9%
8.45
X/2
16%
5.29
X/X
10%
6.07
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.89
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.0pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
48%
Away Win
47%
+0.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 51%
+9% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.57/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.49
+39% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -8%
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 496 · 84%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
18.2 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.3

Newcastle United vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Liverpool
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.97 xG 2.73
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 9
259 Passes 484
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 42
9 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 4-2 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
27.08.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-2 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
18.02.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
31.08.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
30.04.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
16.12.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 2-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 3-3 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
3-3
AWAY Liverpool
2.09 xG 1.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
277 Passes 450
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United and Liverpool shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Newcastle United had 41% of the ball to Liverpool's 59%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 2.09 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newcastle United and 2.33 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

Newcastle United 3-3 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 30%, draw 22%, Liverpool 48%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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