Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Dec 2024

Aston Villa
3-1 HT 3-0
Brentford
📅04/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
7.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.85
X/1
12%
4.76
X/2
7%
11.35
X/X
11%
6.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.85
2/2
12%
7.76
2/X
5%
16.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-4.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.5pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
2.16/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.43
+11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
373 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 79%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.0 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Aston Villa vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Brentford
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.67 xG 1.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
404 Passes 240
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-3 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
17.12.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-2 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
30.07.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-3 HT 3-2 Brentford Brentford HAZPL
22.04.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
23.10.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-0 HT 3-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
02.01.2022 Brentford Brentford 2-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
3-1
AWAY Brentford
2.43 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 5
333 Passes 342
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
41 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa saw off Brentford 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 49% of the ball to Brentford's 51%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.43 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Aston Villa and 1.67 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 51%, draw 24%, Brentford 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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