Arsenal 2-0 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Dec 2024

Arsenal
2-0 HT 0-0
Manchester United
📅04/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
8.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 27% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.82
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.25
X/1
23%
3.76
X/2
6%
12.95
X/X
7%
6.5
2/1
13%
21.45
2/2
7%
9.76
2/X
6%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.2pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -13%
2.01/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.45
+6% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -30%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
487 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
38.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.9 Crosses 9.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Arsenal vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Manchester United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 0.77
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
402 Passes 327
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
38 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.07.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United HAZ
12.05.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
03.09.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
23.07.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United HAZ
22.01.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
04.09.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 2-0 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-0
AWAY Manchester United
2.16 xG 0.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 0
403 Passes 412
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
36 Box Touches 6
23 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal beat Manchester United 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arsenal had 50% of the ball to Manchester United's 50%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 2.16 to 0.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal and 1.50 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Arsenal 2-0 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 57%, draw 22%, Manchester United 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 Dec 2024
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